November 2026 Visa Bulletin predictions: which cut-offs are likely to move?
The November 2026 Visa Bulletin had not been published when this page was built (2026-10-09). For every main employment-based and family category, the table gives the chance that its Final Action Date moves forward, stays the same or moves backward, based on how that same cut-off behaved in its last 12 bulletins. The method was backtested on 4,800 past category-months before being used here.
Quick answer
- EB-2 India (1 Nov 2013): forward 40% · no change 40% · backward 20%
- EB-3 India (1 Jan 2014): forward 35% · no change 65% · backward 5%
- EB-2 China (1 Oct 2021): forward 25% · no change 70% · backward 5%
- EB-3 China (8 Jan 2022): forward 55% · no change 40% · backward 5%
- EB-2 Rest of World (1 Jan 2025): forward 35% · no change 55% · backward 10%
- EB-3 Rest of World (15 May 2024): forward 55% · no change 35% · backward 10%
- F2A Rest of World (22 Sep 2026): forward 40% · no change 55% · backward 5%
Already in the October 2026 bulletin (the starting point for these odds):
- EB-3 (Rest of World, Mexico) retrogressed 109 days, from 1 Sep 2024 to 15 May 2024.
- EB-2 (Rest of World, Mexico, Philippines) is no longer Current: cut-off set at 1 Jan 2025.
Employment-based: odds for November 2026
| Category | Oct 2026 cut-off | Forward | No change | Backward | Most likely | Typical move if forward | Same month in past years (fwd / hold / back) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 Rest of World | Current | — | 95% | 5% | stays Current | — | 1 / 12 / 0 |
| EB-1 China | 1 Jul 2023 | 50% | 50% | 5% | toss-up | 31 days | 2 / 11 / 0 |
| EB-1 India | 1 Feb 2023 | 40% | 40% | 20% | toss-up | 70 days | 1 / 12 / 0 |
| EB-2 Rest of World | 1 Jan 2025 | 35% | 55% | 10% | no change | 56 days | 1 / 12 / 0 |
| EB-2 China | 1 Oct 2021 | 25% | 70% | 5% | no change | 31 days | 9 / 4 / 0 |
| EB-2 India | 1 Nov 2013 | 40% | 40% | 20% | toss-up | 54 days | 6 / 6 / 1 |
| EB-3 Rest of World | 15 May 2024 | 55% | 35% | 10% | forward | 39 days | 3 / 10 / 0 |
| EB-3 China | 8 Jan 2022 | 55% | 40% | 5% | forward | 31 days | 6 / 6 / 1 |
| EB-3 India | 1 Jan 2014 | 35% | 65% | 5% | no change | 30 days | 4 / 8 / 1 |
| EB-3 Philippines | 15 Aug 2023 | 40% | 55% | 5% | no change | 34 days | 6 / 7 / 0 |
Family-sponsored: odds for November 2026
| Category | Oct 2026 cut-off | Forward | No change | Backward | Most likely | Typical move if forward | Same month in past years (fwd / hold / back) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F1 Rest of World | 22 Jan 2020 | 40% | 55% | 5% | no change | 116 days | 7 / 6 / 0 |
| F1 Mexico | 8 Sep 2008 | 70% | 25% | 5% | forward | 112 days | 7 / 6 / 0 |
| F1 Philippines | 1 Nov 2013 | 25% | 70% | 5% | no change | 95 days | 6 / 7 / 0 |
| F2A Rest of World | 22 Sep 2026 | 40% | 55% | 5% | no change | 153 days | 6 / 7 / 0 |
| F2A Mexico | 22 Mar 2026 | 40% | 55% | 5% | no change | 118 days | 6 / 7 / 0 |
| F2B Rest of World | 22 Aug 2019 | 50% | 50% | 5% | toss-up | 52 days | 8 / 5 / 0 |
| F2B Mexico | 15 May 2010 | 35% | 65% | 5% | no change | 167 days | 10 / 3 / 0 |
| F2B Philippines | 1 Oct 2013 | 50% | 50% | 5% | toss-up | 67 days | 6 / 7 / 0 |
| F3 Rest of World | 22 Oct 2014 | 40% | 55% | 5% | no change | 68 days | 8 / 5 / 0 |
| F3 Mexico | 1 Jul 2001 | 25% | 70% | 5% | no change | 58 days | 9 / 4 / 0 |
| F3 Philippines | 22 Jul 2006 | 50% | 50% | 5% | toss-up | 84 days | 7 / 6 / 0 |
| F4 Rest of World | 22 Oct 2011 | 50% | 50% | 5% | toss-up | 54 days | 7 / 6 / 0 |
| F4 China | 22 Oct 2011 | 50% | 50% | 5% | toss-up | 54 days | 7 / 6 / 0 |
| F4 India | 15 Dec 2006 | 10% | 85% | 5% | no change | 31 days | 8 / 5 / 0 |
| F4 Mexico | 22 Apr 2001 | 10% | 85% | 5% | no change | 14 days | 9 / 4 / 0 |
| F4 Philippines | 15 May 2008 | 65% | 35% | 5% | forward | 85 days | 7 / 6 / 0 |
Percentages are rounded to the nearest 5%. “Typical move if forward” is the median size of forward moves in that series over the last 36 bulletins. “Same month in past years” counts how that series changed from October to November in earlier years (back to October 2013); it is shown for context and is not used in the odds, because calendar month did not improve the backtest. † = fewer than 4 date-to-date moves in the last 12 bulletins (for example the series was Current or Unavailable until recently), so treat that row as especially weak. Categories not listed have the same cut-off as “Rest of World” for the last 10 years; see all categories. For dates 3, 6 and 12 months out, see the forecast page.
How the odds are made
- Every change between two consecutive bulletins is labelled forward (later date, reopened, or became Current), no change, or backward (earlier date, became Unavailable, or Current ended with a cut-off date).
- The odds are the smoothed shares of those three labels over the series’ last 12 transitions (half a count added to each label so nothing gets 0% or 100%).
- Alternatives were tried and compared on the same backtest: windows of 6 and 24 bulletins, blending in the pooled behaviour of all series, and the calendar-month pattern. The chosen method (12-bulletin window) won on the training years (up to December 2021); the numbers below are for the later, untouched test years.
How good are these odds? (backtest)
Scored with the Brier score: the squared miss between the stated chances and what happened, summed over the three outcomes (0 is perfect, 2 is the worst; lower is better). Test period: forecasts made after December 2021, 2,280 category-months.
| Method | Score |
|---|---|
| These odds (own last 12 moves) | 0.423 |
| Always say “nothing moves” | 0.596 |
| Fixed long-run shares from the training years | 0.644 |
| Predicted (avg.) | Actually happened | Forecasts |
|---|---|---|
| 4% | 6% | 613 |
| 15% | 28% | 382 |
| 30% | 38% | 538 |
| 44% | 39% | 523 |
| 58% | 31% | 187 |
| 74% | 41% | 37 |
| Predicted (avg.) | Actually happened | Forecasts |
|---|---|---|
| 4% | 2% | 1,884 |
| 14% | 8% | 342 |
| 26% | 0% | 54 |
Reading it honestly. The odds beat both simple baselines in the test years, so the pattern in recent moves carries real information. At the high end the odds were too optimistic: where they said about 58% for a forward move, it happened 31% of the time (187 forecasts); where they said about 74% for a forward move, it happened 41% of the time (37 forecasts). Treat a 55–70% “forward” as a lean, not a likelihood. Retrogressions are rare and hard to see coming: use the “backward” column as a rough warning level, not a signal.
Track record from here on
The first set of odds, for the November 2026 bulletin, was saved on 2026-10-09 in a frozen file before the bulletin was published. When the November 2026 bulletin appears, this section will show how they did, good or bad. Nothing has been scored yet.
What this does not know
- The State Department’s own notes about expected movement, retrogression warnings and fiscal-year-end limits. The notes in each bulletin are not parsed on this site yet.
- Pending demand, annual limits, USCIS chart choices (Final Action vs Dates for Filing) and policy changes.
- Anything about your own case. A priority date, category, country and status all matter.
Questions
Will EB-2 India advance in the November 2026 Visa Bulletin?
Nobody outside the State Department knows. Based on how EB-2 India moved in its last 12 bulletins, this site puts the chance of the November 2026 Final Action Date moving forward at about 40%, staying the same at about 40% and moving backward at about 20%. In the 13 earlier October-to-November transitions on record it moved forward 6 times, stayed the same 6 times and moved back 1 time. These are history-based odds, not an official forecast.
Will EB-3 China advance in the November 2026 Visa Bulletin?
Nobody outside the State Department knows. Based on how EB-3 China moved in its last 12 bulletins, this site puts the chance of the November 2026 Final Action Date moving forward at about 55%, staying the same at about 40% and moving backward at about 5%. In the 13 earlier October-to-November transitions on record it moved forward 6 times, stayed the same 6 times and moved back 1 time. These are history-based odds, not an official forecast.
Will EB-2 for all other countries move in the November 2026 Visa Bulletin?
Nobody outside the State Department knows. Based on how EB-2 Rest of World moved in its last 12 bulletins, this site puts the chance of the November 2026 Final Action Date moving forward at about 35%, staying the same at about 55% and moving backward at about 10%. In the 13 earlier October-to-November transitions on record it moved forward 1 time, stayed the same 12 times and moved back 0 times. These are history-based odds, not an official forecast.
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